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Steven's avatar

As you know, I’m an investment researcher, and I recently started asking for “deep research” reports on all my questions before we humans tackled them. My version of what you describe the as the creativity deficit: I’ve been disappointed on how its answers reflect back conventional wisdom: confidence that US stocks are better investments than other countries. Same with US growth.

There’s a phenomenon in finance we sometimes call the davos effect - whatever the elite consensus is in Davos, the opposite tends to happen (eg 2022 everyone in Davos was talking about stagflation risks, then the opposite happened). That was sort of my reaction to many investment research questions. (If it’s a prediction, bet on the opposite).

Of course, the vast majority of humans have the exact same problem and bias.

On the other hand, its ability to answer more factual and contained questions is really impressive, so don’t read this as me being a skeptic!

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